Dream Shards Are Getting Rarer... Patch 3.1

I am getting this horrible feeling of deja'vu. Remember that post about dream shards I did way back? Explaining why they weren't as big as I originally thought after patch 3.0?

Well, now I'm convinced they are going to be big... very big in patch 3.1.

Why? Let's see, when supply is low and demand is med-high, prices go up right?

What happens when you have an item that very few people are collecting but a decent group of players still need for enchants or acquiring new recipes? Um... prices should rise.

So, here's my thinking for Patch 3.1 and I'm already starting to see it with dream shards currently. Here's why I think the supply of dreamshards has hit an all time low:

  • There's no content in the game past 5 mans that drops blue loot.
  • There are no items in the game worth disenchanting that frequently drop dream shards.
  • Players have been buying enchanting mats for months while dream shards were slowly dissappearing from guild banks.

Dream shards on my server are as high as 17-18 gold, which if you remember my video a while back is 2 gold more than the highest price I purchased before patch 3.0.8. Do you think that dream shards will be a profitable investment this time around, or will I once again mistake scarcity for people stockpiling?

Comment!

21 comments: on "Dream Shards Are Getting Rarer... Patch 3.1"

  1. Perhaps I don't see this happening because my server isn't the fastest when it comes to progression, but I don't see the dream shard supply drying up all that soon. In spite of the reduced utility of Emblems of Heroism, heroics are still being run regularly (I know this because there is an abundance of Frozen Orbs, and prices are still falling) and are responsible for the vast majority of sharded blues. I'm frequently in heroic PUGs where every blue drop is sharded, perhaps because people are still running them for achievements, reputation, and dailies.

    Obviously with any content patch we should expect prices to spike for high-end enchanting mats (lots of gear turnover = huge demand for Dream Shards, Cosmic Essences and Abyss Crystals), but I'm not convinced it will last. Ulduar runs aren't replacing heroics. They're replacing Naxx.

  2. Blizzard might introduce a abyss split. And it might even be a 4 to 1 or something. Just speculation but it already happened 2 times. :-)

    Abyssal shards are already falling and falling and falling...

  3. I dropped tailoring to level blacksmithing on an alt priest which already had enchanting levelled up. You can mass produce dream shards cheaply with Legplates of Conquest (3 saronite bars and 2 crystallised earth).

    Note that the legs are BoP so you can't mail the legs to a different toon.

  4. Dream Shards currently vanish off the AH as fast as they appear on my server - I was happily selling off two at a time for ever-increasing prices when a guildmate offered me a good price for my remaining stock.

    I'll be keeping an eye on them - and probably kicking myself if they rocket in price after 3.1 - but for now, I'm happy to feed other people's stockpiles.

  5. I actually just noticed this on my server. (Cho'gall US) Currently the dream shard market is around 16-17g a piece, a few weeks ago it was more around 8-9. Too bad i dropped enchanting...

  6. Hi Markco, Keep up the good work.

    Based on recent dealings with Dream Shards on my server would seem to combat this opinion. I picked up a dream shard for 8g last night and quick sold it for 12g. I saw listings ranging up to 17g but they had 12 hours left so they had been there for 36 hours and not sold over the weekend? I'm not sure that the patch will have much more than a minimal effect.
    -Rarwzor
    ---wowtrade.blogspot.com---

  7. Thinking bout the same thing really. I have a few dream shards in my bank allready. They are now down to around 12g on my server. Might invest 200-300g on this.

  8. At the very least I'd advise buying 20 and selling them on patch day.

  9. Dreamshards are super cheap on my server. In the 10g range for the past month or so. They don't seem to be going up.

  10. Dream shards are created as a by product of DEing greens. The vast majority of dusts and essences on the AH were originally part of some craftable green. The standard way to make money with JC and enchanting, for example, is to use the byproducts of profitable jewelcrafting to create enchanting mats, the byproduct of which (at a 5% drop rate) is shards. Most everyone who does this has thousands of shards in the bank left from all the DEing we did before 3.0.8. Since 3.0.8, the increased demand for the shards has hardly made a dent in our stocks, or in the price. I personally am sitting on my stock hoping that I'll be able to out-wait my competitors, but unless the ratio of demand for shards to regular mats increases, these stocks are just getting bigger.

  11. Prices still as low as always on my server.

  12. I also noticed a rise in prices recently. Maybe this is from people pushing to get ready for Ulduar by running more Naxx, and getting more new gear? Or could just be stockpiling... not sure.

  13. On my server (US-Rexxar) Frozen Orbs have been steadily climbing recently, which I've been attributing to people stockpiling for 3.1, as well as less interest in heroics. When 3.1 is finally released I wouldn't be surprised to see the price go up even higher once everyone is busy all week long working to push through ulduar, taking more time away from heroic farming. I'm not so certain that I'm buying up every orb I see, but I'll grab anything I deem cheap by current price standards.

  14. My server seems to be dumping EVERYTHING in anticipation of the patch. Either they're shortsighted or we've had a huge amount of stockpiles just sitting around. I've been snatching up DE mats and such, aiming more at the lower end to midmarket upgraders. Even after making sure I could get a good margin on what I payed, I'm starting to see folks start to sell below even that.

    My gold is drying up, the bank's getting full and I'm looking for other things to pull me back up until this settles. I know prices should go back up after everybody gets their vaunted dualspec training. It's just annoying that I should have started later to prepare than earlier >.>

  15. I say yes because with the new patch coming out... people will need more enchants. It isn't just dream shards that will go up though, I think all enchanting mats will go 30% higher and JewelCrafting mats will go up about 20-40%. But after about 1 week of the patch enchanting mats will probably crash lower than they are right now.
    -Vellinthy,Hakkar

  16. I agree 100%. Shards have gone up from 5g a piece to 12g a piece and rising on my server. It has been harder to get heroic groups so I am guessing that as more and more people gear up in Naxx and Ulduar the prices will continue to go up. I have been hording mine and waiting for the right time to unload.

    Bank of Amorob Blog

  17. Prices on my server are around 17-19g at the moment. Haven't really seen the price rise although I HAVE noticed that there are much fewer of them on the AH.

  18. what bout infinit dust?.. those bastards goes for 4g each on my server atm and sells well. U guys think its any point in stocking up those aswell for patch?

  19. Over the last month going rate has gone up from 6 g/ea to 18 g/ea on my server and I'm expecting that it's going to rise even more after 3.1.

    Profit!

  20. Armorsmiths can no longer DE the Legplates of Conquest into Dream Shards or vendor it for 9g. It now vendors for about 1g and de's into a small dream shard.

    This was hotfixed 9th April.

    Ignore my earlier comment. Looks like I blew 4k gold powerlevelling blacksmithing for nothing.

  21. Over eastern the price exploded from 10 to 20g. Without anything in between. Before that the price was stable at 10g forever.

    Don't know why but I'm selling my stock at the moment. :-)

    I assume it's eastern and not the patch. Dust also climbed back to 5g a piece.

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