Guest Post By Deepcut From Warcraft Gold Analysis
My name is Deepcut, and I currently play on the Eldre'Thalas realm. After seeing all the fuss about "Blizzard Sanctioned Gambling" in World of Warcraft, I decided to see if I could help the community by running an experiment of my own. I emailed Markco of Just My Two Copper with my idea, and with that decided to start with my first gold-making blog.
I am a finance major here at the local university and I also enjoy spending my time in World of Warcraft making gold. I was recently inspired to see if I could successfully perform meaningful statistical analysis on Mysterious Fortune Card. I was inspired by the blog World of Warcraft Fortunes.
The House Always Wins
So, over the course of a couple of weeks, I gathered up over 8,000 Mysterious Fortune Cards and then tried my luck. Here's the statistics rendered from flipping the cards:
Crunching the Numbers
Also it shows that I made back a paltry 18,402g on my nearly 90,000g investment. Here are the percentages of the flips: -->
A Wild Guess
10s = 53.5%
50s = 20.5%
1g = 16%
5g = 7.75%
20g = 1.75%
50g = .23%
200g = .2%
1000g = .05%
5000g = .02%
Since I know with a decent amount of confidence my expected value should be between 1g0s74c to 3g55s8c, these percentages give me an expected value of 3g6s85c, which falls well within my confidence interval while following a natural progression of lower percentages for the higher value cards.
Of course, there are 58 different Fortune Cards, and maybe the percentage is derived from a fraction of 58:
1s = 31/58 = 53.4483%
50s = 12/58 = 20.6897%
1g = 9.2/58 = 15.8621%
5g = 4.5/58 = 7.7586%
20g = 1/58 = 1.7241%
50g = .14/58 = 0.2414%
200g = .12/58 = 0.2069%
1000g = .03/58 = 0.0517%
5000g = .01/58 = 0.0172%
These percentages give an expected value of 2g96s21c, also within my confidence interval.
You can tweak the percentages and still easily fall within the confidence interval. So really it's anyone's guess. I would need many, many, many more flips to determine what the actual drop percentages are - roughly 32 million flips. (This is 95% confidence +/- 2 copper, with the assumption standard deviation won't change radically).
Now, these could be off by quite a bit, especially on the ones with much lower probability. I could have been very unlucky on the 1,000g card (like if they were 1/1000), or extremely lucky on the 5,000g card (like if they were 1/10000). However, I think we can all agree your chances of getting one of the rarer cards are extremely cost prohibitive, and not worth your time and effort.
TLDR: Don't bother flipping the cards - sell them or make Fortune Cookies, or just make glyphs from the ink. Of course, maybe you just want to see if you can get one of the 5,000g cards for bragging rights and to help peddle more cards!
Thanks for reading, and I hope you enjoyed my first foray into blogging about making gold in World of Warcraft!