Patch 4.1 & Jewelcrafting Gem Vendor Prices

I just checked MMO-Champion and to my surprise there was something that was data-mined. It's a real shocker if it's true, read the change below.

Jewelcrafting

This changes the entire market, it brings Obsidium and Elementium floor prices way down - obsidium's new floor price will be 4.5g, down from 54g. If Blizzard does decide to go forward with this change the whole market will crash, the demand for obsidium and elementium will most likely crash due to no more demand, since there won't be a safety net anymore.

Do keep in mind that this data-mined stuff, Blizzard hasn't stated that this is in fact a real change. Datamined things have been wrong in the past - remember when MMO-Champion datamiend that wrath epic gems had their cooldown removed? They were wrong and caused thousands of people to lose out on a lot of gold.

My Suggestion? Get out, and get out now. You're better being safe and protected than being out 5,10, even 20,000g. While I don't expect the patch to hit anytime soon ( perhaps in 1-2 weeks ), I'd suggest that you get out of the market as soon as possible. Get to cutting those gems, prospecting that ore ASAP!

The days of making gold from the obsidium shuffle are over, prices are crashing and if Blizzard decides to go ahead with this change, it will be the final nail to the coffin. It's a grim day for us WoW Gold makers, a grim day indeed.

What are your thoughts? What do you think about the change? What will happen to the market?

38 comments: on "Patch 4.1 & Jewelcrafting Gem Vendor Prices"

  1. ffffffffffffffffff

  2. If this is true they are starting to Kill JC as a money maker in high end, Or maybe this a step to inflict a blow to RTM and Bot farmers out there, that just use ore in there shady business.
    But let´s see what blizz says, but better safe then sorry and cut your losses and start cut and prospecting all that ore.

  3. I wonder how the meta gem market is going to be affected. The prices could go way up once people just drop the shuffle and stop transmuting them.

    I think I will transmute half and 9g vendor half.

  4. How about a link to the "data-mined" data? The gem links you provided show the normal price of 9g...

  5. Hoping I could get your/someone's input.

    I have purchased over 600 stacks of ore (about 70% Elementium, 30% Obsidium) within the past couple of weeks, which I have not prospected, yet (due to lack of time).

    1) Since there has been so much speculation about alchemists at some point being able to transmute the rare gems into epics (if implemented), should I be holding on to the rare gems?

    2) Should I cut and vendor Carnelians as well or craft and DE them into Greater Celestials, despite a likely dust/essence price crash?

    Thanks very much for any opinions!

    @Anonymous: link to MMO-Champion post

  6. If the market does crash, l3ig is right - the price for blue gems will go up since there will be less prospecting. Wouldn't it make more sense to use all those greens in transmutes to meta's and blue gems? I'm sure you'll get more than 6g profit doing the transmutes if they implement this - maybe not overnight but in the long run you wont be losing thousands of gold as you suggest.

  7. Remember the ripple effect.

    The price of the ore will drop.
    The price of Enchanting mats will drop.
    The price of BS items will drop.
    The price of Enchanting scrolls will drop.

    If this happens, you want to get rid of just about all your stock of any of those items if at all possible.

  8. If the Floor on gems falls like this it is also quite possible that you will see a higher demand for obsidium while elementium crashes, while people rush to x-mute Blue quality gems with the lower price of herbs. If that is the case, Meta costs may rise as Big Al said.

  9. I also think that if this goes through it will just make Blacksmithing more profitable, super cheap ore and the new Call to Arms will mean alot of Hardened Obsidium sets sold at awesome profit margins.

  10. With the possibility that the datamined information is real, I really wish I could trust this blog the way I used to. But there have been a few too many over-stated claims made in front-page posts for me to feel confident in what I read here any more =/. I hadn't realized the extent to which I felt that way until today when I saw this post.

    I'm hoping that there is reasonable discussion taking place on the boards amongst other members. I could use some thoughtful assistance in deciding how to plan around this eventuality.

  11. If the price changes are real there will be a huge crash and tons of super cheap ore, which I will buy all I can.

    The shuffle will be fine. It might not be nearly as profitable as it is currently, and we will have to work harder than just cutting and vendoring, but in the long run....

    Meta Gems will go back up, enchanting materials will get more expensive, inferno rubies will go up too since less being transmuted.


    I think Blizzard is just redistributing the wealth in a more sensible way, 9g vendors never seemed reasonable to me.

  12. I have to say, I have been expecting this and have stopped buying cheap ore the last week or so. Just didn't make sense for the cut rares to sell for more then the cut uncommons. I am glad though that they are doing this in a patch and not a hotfix.

  13. I for one hope they will go trough with this change. The shuffle have been a bulletproof thing to make alot of gold off and that's no fun. Like some people has commented already, prices will change across the board and over time there will still be gold to be made off the shuffle. It just won't be as black and white, you'll actually have to use your brain to see when it's profitable to shuffle and when not.

    Unfortunatelly I don't believe the prices will change, but one can always hope :P

  14. Damn I called this change several weeks ago on the forums, I knew Blizzard would be dropping a bombshell on us.

    On the bright side, we won't be spending our days recycling ore anymore.

    However, this does still open up many opportunities for us to make more gold from JC combos. While Ore won't have the floor prices to hold it up anymore, those with enchanters and alchemists should be able to further widen profit margins from DE'd jewelry and xmuting meta/rare gems.

    This change should also help push out people who were only making gold from being a JC, without supporting professions, these people will suddenly be unable to make gold with JC alone.

    I'd definitely move whatever Ore you have laying around and turn it into liquid gold before the patch and be ready to pounce on further opportunities as they arise.

  15. I honestly can't see this realistically happening. However if it does then you can count on every single xmute spec'd alchemist to be transmuting rare gems as often as they can which in my opinion wouldn't cause the price of rares to rise because of market flooding. What I personally would do is craft the rings and necklaces with the uncommons and DE them for dust/essences. However again, if this does happen, it will kill the economy of every server and will affect far more than just ore and gem prices.

  16. I expect a lot of fallout if this goes through, many sub markets depend on this price, being maintained. I see enchanting mats dropping at first but going back up as fewer people are doing the shuffle, and thus have to make back more of the money from mats sales. This is just wow, idk what else I'm gonna do for passive income

  17. I think many of you are overreacting to this news. You're basing your whole thought process assuming that vendoring gems is what is keeping the ore price up. I highly doubt that's the case universally, and I know it's not the case on my realm. Blues and yellows you always cut/vendor, but orange, red purple and green have had and still do have other uses. 33% of the uncommon gems you get won't be as useful as they are now, but 66% are just as useful as they were before. Will ore prices go down? Certainly. But they won't tank like you're talking about. Maybe from 60g/stack down to 35g/stack - not down to 5g/stack.

  18. If this change goes through I'd expect to see ore, dust, essences, scrolls, bs items, and (something I think people have over looked) inferno rubies drop in value.

    We should also note that the price of uncut uncommon gems is still 5g on the ptr so obsidium would only drop to about 30g/stack. It would also open up the possibility of selling cut uncommons on the ah and maybe (although probably not) make the fire prism worth making.

  19. "With the possibility that the datamined information is real, I really wish I could trust this blog the way I used to"

    The info is real. I actually saw this earlier today on MMO-champion before this post.

  20. IF this happens its a short term vs long term thing.

    short term there will be a lot of ore, bots will dump left over supplies or keep trying to supply a market that doesn't keep buying until a new price lose is set.
    this is simply due to the fact that there is a safety net. when ore sells for bellow that safety net then people will buy without hesitation. there is no risk, and on my server almost no reason to do a full shuffle. just vendor and move on. that will change after the initial ore dump and after many people move away from the market because of the risk and the farmers can no longer make tons of gold posting cheaper than floor price ore.
    at that point down the line the markets that have crashed will slowly gain ground. there will be no huge supply of ore (therefore no huge supply of anything else related to the shuffle)
    eventually prices will normalize and it will be like infinite/cosmic/metas in wrath.
    the market will then be set on demand of those items. which means if ore is a certain price, everything based off of ore will move towards that price+profit.

    in all seriousness it is a good idea to liquidate (still for progit) if you have vast stockpiles. like myself you may want to keep carns/jaspers for enchant mats. you may want to keep a healthy amount for xmutes to rares and metas. but no longer will i have 4 guild banks full of uncommons waiting to be cut, nor will i have 7 toons whos mailboxes are full of ore waiting to be prospected. I will slow my purchasing down to what i can do in a day or two of work so that i'm not hit so hard when the patch comes. Mostly I plan on waiting on the panic selling of everything and then panic buying as supplies diminish.
    if you play this right there is a lot to be made.

  21. I guess I'm just not following this.

    The floor price of Ore is 54g--9g per gem avg 6 gems in a stack. I see that.

    Now the gem price goes to under one gold. The floor price is now under 5g.

    Does this mean more Ore will be farmed or less? If the price goes down won't that mean less ore is farmed?

    If less ore is farmed, won't that make the availability go down? If so, won't the reduction in supply cause the price to rise?

    If the supply of ore is down, then less is shuffled. Wouldn't that mean fewer gems, thus making prices rise?

    If there are fewer gems, wouldn't that mean crafting and DE'ing undergoes a reduction also? Less DE means fewer mats, which would seem to make prices go up.

    I'm not seeing how a dramatic reduction in gem prices would mean more ore is farmed or that more players would suddenly begin to do the shuffle. If anything, it would make players look elsewhere for their income. That seems to mean the prices would go up.

    What am I missing?

  22. uncut uncommon gems vendor for 5g each which would make elementiums floor 20g and obsidiums floor 30g

  23. Should i get rid also of all my pyrite ore? Nothing would change around prospecting epics in the future,right?

    If uncommon cut gems will be lowered to 0.75, what will happen to uncutted gems? 0.25?

  24. Uncut uncommons do not vendor for 5g each. As was stated, they vendor for 75s a piece, which would put Obsidium at a floor price of 4.5g and Elementium at a floor of around 6.5g (assuming 1 rare per stack). This would in fact cause less ore to be on the market due to less people farming, which would in fact cause the price to rise. Rising price means less people buy, which means even less people farm, and so on and so on until there is very little left. You also have to factor in the fact that most of the bots that are out there farming the ore are also farming herbs as well. If you take away the ore farmers due to absolutely no profit, then there will be (probably) a massive flooding of herbs which would bottom the price out on those as well. Bottomed prices on herbs as well would be good for scribes and alchemists, but would eventually run more and more farmers away from that as well due to low returns prices caused by oversaturation. Basically if Blizz decides to do this, they will ruin not just 2 professions, but nearly all of them long term.

  25. Fantastic news. Presents a major challenge, and this is what it is all about. I haven't played the game for 3 months now but these are the types of changes I like in patch notes, something that changes the money-making landscape for all. Kudos Blizz.

  26. Hmm this is not the best new ive heard all day.

    Thats two markets im in gone in as many weeks!

    Just out of interest does any one know what has happened to the supply of savage leather scraps?

  27. What this does is return the profession back to its roots: cutting blue gems, along with squeezing extra profit out of transmutes and disenchants. No more vendor bailouts, no more vendor-priced rares..

    Wave good-bye to the casual JCs who missed the full-blown trade wars over the gem market during the first half WotLK. AH PvP is back.(Vendor price on the rares is going up, too, so we can start throwing listing fees at each other as well. Huzzah!)

  28. the fact that most farmers will simply no lower their prices much so oreprices won't tank.

    example, average obsidium ore price on my server 65 - 70g stack, Elementium ore 75 - 120g stack, usually around 90 / 100 with jumps and dips around weekend / and thursday.

    The only reason its still profitable to be a JC for the cut gems, is because of the shuffle, is x-mute red, and some into meta's Then depending on dust prices either shuffle to enchant mats, or vendor the gems off after i've cut them. Enchant mats are allways oversupplied and crashing in prices. so the only valid options are x-mute to meta, ( prices crash due to oversupply, meta cuts will fall aswell )

    x-mute to gems, ( good luck unloading those yellows and greens )

  29. I agree with the above post, the fire alarms are sounding but that's all i am hearing.
    If the only reason miners/mining bots farmed ore is because Gold Junkies like us would buy 100 stacks at a time to keep them in business to vendor and make a profit, then it no longer profitable for them to farm the ore since it is no longer profitable for us to vendor, so if they too jump off this market then you will see ore prices rise not fall, look at what happened in wrath when the bot hammer came down, I remember saronite and borean leather jumping through the roof because supply just wasn't there. I see the same thing happening again. Yes perhaps say goodbye to prospect cut vendor for easy gold. It never felt right to me anyway, I remember a friend of mine buying ore back in the day smelting bars and vendoring for profit receiving a 3 day ban ;) LOL how times have changed.

  30. For what it's worth, some of us have still been making gold on the actual shuffle instead of shunting everything over to be vendored.

    The saronite shuffle gained a lot of its utility and vitality from the myriad outlets for prospected goods. At its heart, the obsidium is little different, except that an overly high vendor that twisted the market around.

    Granted, I may be an anomoly, since my smallish server very rarely hit the vendor floor. Nevertheless, I still feel it's a mistake to overlook the rest of the shuffle once the vendor price changes.

  31. This is not s ripple effect. It's a tsunami that will decimated the virtual economy. Comment from the gold wire posting from her phone

  32. Just a couple points...

    First...the old information about the transmute cooldown removal was MMO mis-interpreting the info they datamined. The old model was removed....and then they slapped on a new cooldown that reset at midnight. The information was correct...they way it was interpreted was wrong.

    The alteration to the vendor price doesn't come as a surprise to everyone. Several of us have been expecting it since Cata was released. For those of you who have been making small fortunes for the past five months, be happy it lasted this long...and be happy they're doing it in a patch rather than a ninja-hotfix, giving you one last kick at the can to liquidate your current inventory.

    Things will spin out differently on different servers, depending on how many players and how many farmers are directly affected by the vendor price change.

    In my own server's case, I expect that many sub-markets will change. Prices on many things will go down initially. Expect this to spill out into non-related markets for a little while. It will be a mini-recession...and as a consequence, fewer people will be able to afford your Vials of the Sand and DMF trinkets for a little while.

    Ore prices will drop in value initially until the career farmers realize they've lost half of their customers. Many will shift gears and switch to herbing. As the daily supply of ore diminishes, the price will stabilize. I expect volatle earth may actually rise in price eventually.

    As career farmers switch to herbs, herb prices will fall as availability rises. As will the prices of volatile life. This may lead to lower prices on the other volatiles depending on how many alchemists commit their daily transmutes to them.

    Any goods involving herbs in their production will come down in price to a greater or lesser degree. Expect to see a resurgance of glyph and card comptetion in 1-2 months after 4.1. as people scramble around trying to find a way to make gold again. (They will be sorely disappointed, as by that time, most of the decks will be in the 5k or less price range and most glyphs....well....we may get back to 2g each.)

    Gem prices will fluctuate wildly day-to-day and week to week for a while as many of the current crop of JCs have rarely bothered to post gems in the ah. I suspect uncommon and rare gems will never really recover in price as JCs trip over themselves undercutting one another.

    I also feel that for whatever reason, some loud people are convinced that epic gems will be introduced sooner in Cata than they were in Wrath. The casual playerbase has undoubtedly picked up on this thought and will hesitate to spend large sums on current gems, gemming up any new gear they get from the new instances, thinking epics are right around the corner.

    Whenever there's a huge market change, there are opportunities. Now is the time to stop concentrating on a market that will disappear and start concentrating on discovering where the new opportunities lie.

  33. I went straight to AH to get the Ores that was there, just to see. All where gone, not a single one. And have not been all day. Must say its the first time I see this on my server. Usually I can buy for 42-45g.

    Hmmm

  34. As i posted in other tread, this is HUGEEE!!

    In Economy that will bring much less gold available in the market..
    the gold from selling things to vendors is what add money to the economy, now the gold will flow more player-player (dont add money to the game, just change the owner) than player-vendor..
    Its blizzard move to reduce the gold flow in the market.. Ultimatly ALL prices will go down, as there will be less available gold..

    People will go to other markets to make gold.. expect more competition in inscription, etc..
    No more 25k in DMC or constant selling of Vial of sands..

  35. As some commenters have started piecing together, there are two values to the uncommon gem in this datamine.

    75 silver to vendor cuts
    5 gold to vendor uncuts

    So, stop talking about the floor being related to the vendor cut price of 75s. The floor is related to the higher of the two values, 5 gold uncuts.

    When server supply of obsidium goes higher than the demand, the obsidium price settles in around the floor - and for our datamine scenario, it is 30gold/stack (avg 6 uncommon x 5gold each).

    BOTers and goldfarmers will still sell their ore at the reduced floor level, because....hey, thats what they do; they'll just make less per hour for their efforts. And as long as there are macro-pressing JCs willing to shuffle it into vendor sales, the process will continue from farmer-to-JC-to-vendor. Harder working JCs putting in more effort, will shuffle it through Alchemy or Enchanting for better margins, giving up the lower, instant vendor sale option.

    The ore transfer through these two lowest common denominators (the sweatshop farmer and the macro-vendor JC), is what supports that floor value.

    If you need hard numbers to prove it, just go get the Consortium Ore Shuffler for Excel. Punch in about 80 starting stacks of Obsidium, update for all to vendor, edit the lower-right box formula for a 5G vendor, remove the cutting time.....and bam.....the macro-vendor JC makes around 1000G per hour....and all while snug in his Mom's basement, watching reruns of CSI.

  36. Guys, it's simple. The prices of ores will always tend to the greater of:

    1) The smallest amount of wages that they are willing to work for.
    2) The minimum wage.

    It's as simple as that. Every server is different, but if yours is anything like mine, then ore stacks will drop. That's because plenty of miners have shown that they are willing to work way below the floor price (selling stacks at 42g-47g). The ore prices are only propped up at 54g because that's the floor price Blizzard's set it at.

    If that floor drops down to 30g, then the ore prices are going to drop, but not necessarily all the way down to 30g. It'll drop to whatever the miners are willing to work for. Maybe it's really only 40g, or maybe it really is 30g. But you can't say what that price will be for everyone, since every server and its farming population is different.

  37. On my server bulk ore prices were already at 30-35g for elementium and and 35-40g for obsidium. Sometimes ore even stayed at bulk prices on the auction during prime time.

    A few weeks ago I bought over 800k worth of herbs and ore via CoD in 3 days at those prices. I have plenty of gold and I've always been a big bulk buyer. As I used to say in trade "Always buying! No limits! I'll take all you have! CoDs paid for the same day!". But 800k worth of CoDs in 3 days was a bit ridiculous.

    The funny thing is when I stopped buying a few days later the price of both ore and herbs went up (after initially dropping even lower). I believe what happened was once I stopped buying the farmers were having trouble moving stock so they stopped farming as much and prices went up.

  38. This might stop the bots for a while, but as a result will increase the profit "Chinese Gold Farmers" will make from the people that want a Vial of the Sands mount and don't want to work 6 months to earn the gold.

    Just when I thought they figured out a way to keep people from buying gold, they do this.

    The end result :

    No more reason to prospect 100 stacks of ore a day, no more bots or players having a reason to farm ore, means prices will sky rocket but no one will have any gold to buy anything.

    We might as well just throw our gold in the streets. lol.

Post a Comment

Insider Gold Strategies

Enter Your Name & Email Below to Receive My 7 Theories On Making Gold... Guaranteed to Put You Ahead of 99% of Players Out There

 

 

Recent Comments

Subscribe to recent comments

Labels

Blog Archive

Featured On: